Impact of RT-PCR Test False-Negative Results for SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance in Mexico

Background: Underestimation of the number cases during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been a constant concern worldwide. Detection severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA using realtime reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is most common method to confirm case. However, these tests have suboptimal sensitivity. Objective: The objective study was estimate COVID-19 confirmed cases, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths in Mexico, accounting for probabilities false-negative tests. Methods: We used publicly available, national databases all SARS-CoV-2 performed at public laboratories Mexico between February 27 October 31, 2020. estimated based on day clinical sample collection after symptom initiation calculated previously. With resulting model, we corrected daily ICU admissions, deaths. Results: Among 2,024,822 people tested 31 with an available result, 1,248,583 (95% confidence interval 1,094,850-1,572,818) compared 902,343 reported positive were 15% 8% higher than reported, respectively. Conclusion: Accounting RT-PCR-based diagnostic tests' precision simple way improve estimations true among persons.